Ackman sees Gaza truce easing Saudi path to Abraham Accords
Milling among the investors crowding the gilded hallways of the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, hedge fund magnate Bill Ackman expressed confidence that Saudi Arabia is moving closer to establishing formal links with Israel.
Ackman, founder of New York-based Pershing Square Capital Management, told The Circuit on Tuesday that he sees the current ceasefire in Gaza easing concerns in the Middle East about joining the 2020 Abraham Accords that normalized Israel’s ties with the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco.
“I think it’ll be in the relative short term,” Ackman said in an interview at the King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, where some 9,000 registrants are attending the conference. “I think there’s going to be a major peace dividend coming out of recent positive developments in the resolution of the Israeli-Gaza situation.”
Ackman, 59, whose personal fortune is estimated by Bloomberg at $8.4 billion, bought a nearly 5% stake in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange last year with his wife Neri Oxman. He said he has also invested in Israeli venture capital funds for the last seven years or so.
Ackman was invited to the conference, often referred to as “Davos in the Desert,” to speak on Tuesday’s panel on geoeconomics, sharing the stage with JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, BlackRock’s Larry Fink and Qualcomm’s Cristiano Amon. He said he was also meeting with other business people in the Gulf and talking about the potential of Israel’s regional integration.
“The only thing holding it back, in my view, was geopolitical risk,” Ackman said. “Investors don’t like geopolitical risk. They don’t like terrorism. They don’t like uncertainty.”
If conditions continue in a positive direction, Ackman said the Middle East at large will draw more foreign capital, a key goal of Saudi Arabia amid declining oil prices.
“As uncertainty goes down, as terrorists get set back, as peace deals get made, as the Abraham Accords expand, I think I’m very bullish for the region,” he said.
Dina Powell McCormick, meanwhile, an investment banker and former Deputy U.S. National Security Advisor during President Donald Trump’s first term, told the conference during a panel discussion that the Abraham Accords have played an important role in the Middle East’s economic development over the past five years.
The Israeli-Arab agreement also paved the way for a growing coalition of Arab and Muslim states that announced their support for the U.S.-brokered ceasefire in Gaza and joint international efforts to rebuild the wartorn territory, said Powell McCormick, a former senior Goldman Sachs executive who is now Vice Chairman and President of Global Client Services at BDT & MSD Partners, a U.S. merchant bank.
“I think it’s because, in many ways, the seeds were planted… not just by the United States, but over 50 countries, again, from Egypt and Jordan, the Emiratis, the Qataris, the Turks, the Pakistanis,” Powell McCormick continued. “This is remarkable.”
Powell McCormick, 52, who was born in Egypt before her parents moved to Dallas, Tex., said Saudi Arabia and its neighbors are exercising broad global influence on a scale that could not have been foreseen a decade ago.
“It would have been hard to imagine that this kingdom and this region of the world is now the dominant source of capital for innovation, the dominant source of capital for the change that we’re witnessing in every industry, artificial intelligence, biotech, robotics, longevity,” Powell McCormick said.
Kotak taps UAE market with India-centric investment funds
Investors in the UAE are showing greater interest in Indian markets.
To cultivate Emirati business, Kotak International, the global arm of India’s third-largest private lender Kotak Mahindra, said it plans to launch India-focused retail funds in the UAE.
Kotak announced on Monday that it’s been granted a license by the UAE’s Securities & Commodities Authority to sell investment funds and portfolios to onshore retail investors, the first Indian firm authorized for such sales.
Shyam Kumar, President of Kotak International, told Reuters that India’s young working population is appealing for foreign investors. “India has got a story which is extremely wide and diversified,” Kumar said.
Aramco’s 14% stock decline saps market value, stresses investors
Investors are expressing concern about Aramco’s sliding stock, which has sapped value from the world’s biggest oil producer as shares of competing companies rise.
Saudi Arabia-owned Aramco’s 14% decline has cut more than $133 billion this year from its market value on Riyadh’s Tadawul stock exchange and some $800 billion since its high of $2.4 trillion in 2022.
The disappointing share performance led Morningstar Investment Services to give a hold recommendation to Aramco, with industry analysts citing prospects for a dividend cut, a looming global oil surplus and a lack of long-term growth versus competitors, Bloomberg reports.
Among Aramco’s peers, shares of France’s Totalenergies have risen 8.6% since the end of 2024 and London-based BP is up 7.4%. In the U.S. Chevron shares have climbed 4.5% and ExxonMobil 1.9%.
Still, Aramco’s current market cap of $1.55 trillion makes it the world’s most valuable oil company, the company continues to pay the highest dividend in the industry and its bond sales this year and last enabled it to raise money to help finance growth.
Investors see possible oil spike, shipping turmoil after U.S. bombing in Iran
Investors are girding for the possibility of more oil price spikes, shipping disruptions and flight cancellations following the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday.
Goldman Sachs floated a scenario for benchmark crude prices rising more than 40% to $110 a barrel if oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is cut in half for a month and supply shortages of 10% continue through the next year.
Brent crude jumped as much as 3% today to its highest level since January.
Air France, Singapore Air, Iberia and Finnair are among the international carriers that have canceled flights to several Gulf destinations this week, including Dubai, Doha and Riyadh.
Investment banks and other international firms that have been building up their presence in the Gulf are reviewing contingency plans for evacuating employees and their families out if the conflict escalates.
Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has started to pull the families of staff out of locations including Dubai, and will consider evacuating workers if they need to accompany them, Bloomberg reports.
The Mizuho and Sumitomo Mitsui firms are also talking to staff about returning to Japan from offices in Qatar, the UAE and other locations.
Gulf leaders, meanwhile, are in close touch with each other to assess the impact of escalating military conflict in the region.
UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed held a round of phone calls on Sunday with Gulf neighbors including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman; Sheikh Mishal Al-Sabah, Emir of Kuwait; Sheikh Tamim Al Thani, Emir of Qatar, and Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq.
He also spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Dubai’s women power 34% of investment in real estate market
Women are becoming a growing force in Dubai’s real estate boom.
Female investors accounted for $32 billion of Dubai real estate transactions last year and women represent 34% of the city’s real estate investors, Arabian Business reports.
Initiatives like Dubai Land Department’s Real Estate Empowerment Program and Brokers Program have already drawn more than 1,000 women into the sector and boosted female representation in brokerage.
The DLD also has plans to promote a flexible investment environment through tailored financing, training, and awareness programs to support women-led ventures.
Dealmakers return as Gulf investor conferences draw crowds
Investors are pouring back into the UAE after the monthlong Ramadan break as temperatures warm up and the AIM Congress kicks off the Middle East’s spring dealmaking season.
Presidents, cabinet ministers, central bank governors and CEOs took to the ADNEC Centre podium on Monday to address some 20,000 registered participants at the global investment conference.
In opening remarks, Dr. Thani Al Zeyoudi, the UAE Minister for Foreign Trade, said the Emirati government will intensify its focus on artificial intelligence, improved infrastructure and clean energy.
“This is our investment model – to find long-term opportunities in high-potential markets and help transform them into a sustainable engine of growth,” Al Zeyoudi said.
Also appearing onstage at the opening session were Denis Sassou Nguesso, President of the Republic of the Congo, Armenian President Vahagn Garniki Khachaturyan and Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary General of the Arab League.
In Dubai, meanwhile, more than 40,000 industry professionals from 90 countries are meeting at the Middle East Energy Conference in the Dubai World Trade Centre.
All eyes on Aramco as world’s top oil company set to alter dividend
Investors around the world are watching Saudi Aramco, which is scheduled to announce changes on Tuesday to the way its $124 billion annual dividend gets paid out.
Two scenarios are being considered as the kingdom tries to address its weakened finances, Bloomberg reports.
Aramco, the world’s biggest oil company, could continue some elevated payments and let its balance sheet take the increasing pain. On the other hand, it could cut distribution of the dividend and risk widening the Saudi budget deficit.
The company’s action would also affect debt issuances by Saudi Arabia, whose nearly $15 billion in bond sales this year make it the biggest borrower in emerging markets, the news agency said.
Crude sales and Aramco’s large annual payouts are central to funding Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 economic transformation plan. The level of the dividend’s distribution, however, has grown beyond the company’s earnings and dried up the $27 billion in net cash it had just over a year ago.
Aramco’s net income has declined year-on-year for seven consecutive quarters, and analysts are forecasting another drop in the fourth quarter. The company’s shares have declined 3% this year.
Milken Mideast Summit draws CEOs, investors and Jill Biden
Right from the start, Michael Milken showed why the conference bears his name as he opened the Milken Institute Middle East and Africa Summit on Thursday in Abu Dhabi.
Drawing from his wide range of contacts, the Wall Street legend probed princes, investors and CEOs on “Navigating a Changing Global Economy” in the grand ballroom at Abu Dhabi’s St. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort.
Milken focused on the region’s galloping pace of growth, citing reports that “the wealth of the Middle East and Africa has reached 67% of the wealth of the Americas.” The dramatic change that has occurred in the last two decades, he said, shows “the importance of the Middle East as a provider of capital to the world.”
The billionaire financial guru will also wrap up the conference during its final session on Friday when Milken interviews Khaldoon Al Mubarak, CEO and Managing Director of the Mubadala sovereign wealth fund and a member of Abu Dhabi’s Executive Council.
Just before the opening bell, it was announced that Dr. Jill Biden, First Lady of the United States, woulld drop by Saadiyat Island for a 20-minute conversation focusing on women’s health care, one of her main initiatives in the White House.
Investment bankers, hedge fund managers and bond traders always form the core of Milken summits. Among those taking part in the Abu Dhabi edition are Guggenheim Partners’ Alan Schwartz, Golub Capital’s Lawrence Golub, Goldman Sachs’ Stephanie Rader, Eldridge Industries’ Todd Boelhy, TCW’s Katie Koch and Brightstar Capital’s Andrew Weinberg.
Responding to Milken in the opening session, Mohamed Mansour, the Egyptian founder and Chairman of London-based Man Capital, said education and jobs are the central need in the region.
“We are facing the biggest change since the 19th century,” he said. “We had the industrial revolution and now we have AI. What assets do we have? The youth. So we have to foster that change and give people a chance.”
Prince Turki Al Faisal, Chairman of Saudi Arabia’s King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies and a former ambassador to the U.S., added: “More and more education is what we need in our part of the world. There is just too much destruction… and our world community must come together to stop the fighting.”
Sheikh Shakhboot Nahyan Al Nahyan, UAE Minister of State for African Affairs, said that the UAE is built on partnership with less developed parts of the world and is working to bring other countries into its orbit. “When we go in Africa, we do not have a checkout date,” he said, adding, “We would love to go to space with Africa.”
Also at the Summit was a touch of Hollywood in the person of actor Edward Norton, who spoke about “The Art of Storytelling,” accompanied by Elie Saab Jr., CEO of Lebanese couture house Elie Saab.
Oil chiefs at ADIPEC ponder where energy market is headed
Abu Dhabi’s annual ADIPEC conference opened on Monday, bringing cabinet ministers, oil executives and investors to the UAE capital from around the world to ponder where the energy market is headed.
Kicking off the four-day event was Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, Group CEO of ADNOC, Chairman of Masdar and COP28 President, who pointed to the growing power appetite of AI data centers.
“No single source of energy is going to be enough to meet this demand,” Al Jaber said in an address to the opening session at Abu Dhabi’s ADNEC hall. “We need to integrate renewable energy, nuclear energy and gas in the most cost and carbon-efficient way.”
On the eve of ADIPEC, Al Jaber hosted a gathering for industry leaders called ENACT Majlis that included Microsoft President Brad Smith, Mark Carney, the Chairman of Brookfield Asset Management who serves as U.N. Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance; Shell CEO Wael Sawan, BP CEO Murray Auchincloss and Princess Beatrice, founder of the U.K. advisory organization BY-EQ.
Amid OPEC production cuts and pressure to shift away from fossil fuels, CEOs from some of the world’s biggest oil companies at ADIPEC rated conflict in the Middle East and friction between the U.S. and China among their top concerns.
BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said he was worried about protecting personnel and safeguarding supplies because of the geopolitical tensions in the region, Bloomberg reports.
“The conflict in the Middle East is probably the top risk of all right now,” Auchincloss said during a panel discussion on Monday. “We operate across five or six countries in the region — we are worried obviously about the security of our people and the security of energy supplies.”
Shell CEO Wael Sawan pointed to today’s U.S. elections and Donald Trump’s campaign promise to increase tariffs on China. “Longer term, what happens on the U.S.-China axis” is a concern for oil companies, Sawan said at the conference.
Oil companies are concerned, Sawan said, about energy demand, supply chains and the impact that sour U.S.-China relations “could have on the redrawing of the energy complex globally.”
UAE Minister of Energy and Infrastructure Suhail Al Mazrouei, meanwhile, said during his opening remarks at ADIPEC that his country plans to invest up to $54 billion to meet sustainable energy demand over the next six years, aiming to “decarbonise our economy and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.”
Nuwa Capital navigates evolving Mideast investment landscape
Khaled Talhouni, Managing Partner of Nuwa Capital, says the recent proliferation of tech IPOs in the Gulf demonstrates that a “window is opening” for investors on stock exchanges in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and some of their neighbors.
Talhouni, 39, has a broad view of developments in regional finance, having opened offices in both Dubai and Riyadh for the venture capital firm, which manages $100 million in assets.
After attending college at Duke University in the U.S., Talhouni returned to the UAE for a job at Dubai International Capital, where he worked on the region’s first seed capital fund. He directed investments and strategy at twofour54 in Abu Dhabi and went on to become a Managing Partner at Wamda Capital. He started Nuwa in 2020.
Nuwa’s backers include Saudi Arabia’s Al Faisaliah Group, Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Co., Jada Fund of Funds and the Dubai Future District Fund. Among its 30 portfolio companies are Calo, a Bahrain-based meal planning start-up; Zest Equity, an online platform for managing venture capital investments; and Raqamyah, a Saudi crowdfunding platform.
The interview has been edited for length and clarity.
What are the major trends you see these days among investors in Middle East businesses?
I think with what’s going on in Saudi Arabia with a lot of very successful IPOs having happened in the past 24 months – particularly but not necessarily in tech, but across the board – we are seeing huge interest in participating in late-stage tech or late-stage, pre-IPO types of deals. That is because investors are seeing how there is a quick return on the back of that.
Also in the UAE, there is the Talabat deal coming up soon as well. So IPOs seem to be the hottest topic in town. I would say that is kind of moving in a big way.
One thing you see a lot more are direct deals, a lot more, so you do see people much more interested in going direct, as opposed to funds. You do see an interest in profitability. I would say that’s kind of increasingly of interest.
As we head into 2025, do you see further new companies being founded, or do you see more acquisitions than founding opportunities?
I think a couple of things are going to happen. First, I think funding is going to pick up because a lot of people are coming into some new dry powders. Some new funds are closing so things are moving. Then those who are sitting on the side have some deployment pressure that they need to deploy.
Secondly, I think a lot of early-stage companies, as funding has dried up relative to what it was in 2020-2021, [are going to be acquired]. We are going to see a lot of mid-tier companies and startups start consolidating into larger ones. So there is a lot of consolidation. More “aqua” (acquisition) hires. So bigger tech companies buying up talent or buying companies, or aqua hiring, or merging with companies that are smaller than them, that basically augment their offering, or add to their existing offering.
In terms of founding companies, that trend is secular. So that trend is continuing no matter what. So you see more and more every year, more companies being founded, regardless of what’s going on in the capital market.
Do we foresee a market correction where only the best companies will survive and move on to series A and beyond?
That’s the natural state of affairs. It should be like that. The unusual period was those couple of years in 2020, 2021, 2022, when everything was getting funded all the time. That’s unusual, but I think the natural [way that things] occur is actually, the majority of companies don’t survive going from Series A to Series B.
We are seeing movement within the IPO space while, at the same time, smaller businesses are struggling. What’s going on in the market?
There is a slowdown, a little bit of a consumer slowdown, particularly in Saudi a little bit. That’s definitely kind of happening in some small way. I think there’s also some liquidity constraints. So that’s definitely happening overall. I think it is very sector-specific.
However, consumer spend overall is being stretched. Which is why, on the other hand, companies, in BNPL (Buy-now-pay-later) and consumer credit seem to be doing so well. So they are really growing very, very aggressively. It is a little bit of a tale of specificities depending on which segment you’re in, you’re having a very different reality.
How has the wave of IPOs and exits shaped the current venture capital environment within the region? What do you think is going to happen in the next coming years?
So on the IPO front, it is extremely positive. I don’t know if you remember this, this whole route was not open. You know, as early as three, four years ago, there were no tech IPOs in the region, and there are very few IPOs overall. Right? Like, it was not a very vibrant capital market generally. So I think the fact that this window is opening, and there is demand, and there’s regulatory reform, and there’s opening up, especially on the Tadawul exchange in Saudi but even on the DFM in Dubai and ADX in Abu Dhabi, I think is extremely positive.
So that’s kind of spurring all kinds of more activity in the space to create validation that you can exit your startup through an IPO, which is typically, if you look at in other developed markets, it’s not the main way companies exit, but it’s not the majority of how startups exit, but it’s where the largest exit has happened. That had not really been open to our region before. And now this opening up really kind of creates some ability, some exit paths for startups at the larger base.
How does Nuwa Capital see the whole startup ecosystem moving forward? What role do you play in this within the region?
We see that the sovereign system is maturing. We do still think that there is still a huge room for more and more companies, for more and more companies to get funded, and more capital to throw on the startup ecosystem. I think there are probably too many individual VCs. So I think it’s a bit fragmented, and I can see that the market is also consolidating and or kind of getting a bit more concentrated, with the larger firms and the more established firms getting disproportionate amounts of the capital in the long run.
As for us, we are very keen on continuing on our mission, which is to kind of really invest in early-stage companies, impact the very best founders, and grow our business on the back of that. We have some companies that are beginning to mature within our portfolio. So we are hoping to position for exit in the coming two to three years. But then we also have a very young portfolio as well, so we will see how that kind of evolves over the coming years.
