Oil soars and stocks slide amid Middle East escalation fears

Stocks fell and oil surged as much as 13% in its biggest intraday rise in three years early on Friday, as investors feared a major escalation of tensions in the Middle East after Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program and Iranian military leaders.

Brent crude surged to $78 a barrel before easing to around $75, rapidly erasing much of this year’s losses caused by trade tensions and increased OPEC+ output. Gold also hit its highest level in weeks, rising 1.2% to $3,423.30 an ounce as investors fled to safety.

Analysts fear that Iran could target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which about one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through, potentially disrupting supplies of millions of barrels of oil a day in an extreme scenario. Such a scenario could see prices reach $130 a barrel, JPMorgan Chase & Co. recently warned.

“We are seeing classical risk-off moves,” Matthew Haupt, portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management, told Bloomberg. “What we are watching now for is the speed and scale of the response from Tehran. That will shape the duration of the current moves. Quite often these moves fade after the initial shocks.”

Meanwhile, Gulf airlines delayed and cancelled flights to Iran, Iraq and Israel on Friday, with some rerouted mid-flight. Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport was closed until further notice, while Iran closed its airspace and Iraq suspended civilian flights. Flights to Lebanon and Jordan were also disrupted.

The Daily Circuit: Trump crypto coin and MGX + PIF bonds oversubscribed

👋 Hello from the Middle East!

In the Daily Circuit today, we’re reporting on surging foreign investment in Gulf stocks, the PIF’s oversubscribed Islamic bond offering, efforts by the UAE to lift U.S. restrictions on Nvidia’s advanced chips, and an all-star art auction lineup at Christie’s Dubai. But first, the Trump stablecoin gets an Emirati boost.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s upcoming visit is generating waves across the Gulf as his cryptocurrency gets adopted for major Middle East investment deals.

Zach Witkoff, a co-founder of Trump’s World Liberty Financial venture, announced in Dubai on Thursday that the firm’s USD1 stablecoin would be used by Abu Dhabi’s MGX investment firm for its $2 billion investment in crypto exchange Binance.

MGX, a tech investment fund created last year by Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala sovereign wealth fund and G42 artificial intelligence firm, has also invested in Open AI and Elon Musk’s xAI. The fund did not comment on Witkoff’s announcement.

Witkoff, son of Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, made the announcement at the TOKEN2049 conference during a panel session with the president’s son Eric Trump, who hailed the UAE’s leadership in the crypto market. 

“We are in the dial-up phase of the crypto revolution right now, and the people who are going to make it bigger are the people who are seeing it today, not the people who see it in five years when half the explosive growth has happened,” said Trump, Executive Vice President of the Trump Organization.

“Abu Dhabi and Dubai are seeing it today,” Trump said. “The countries that can move quickly, are nimble and have foresight are going to win this race.”

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📰 Developing Stories

BARGAINING CHIPS

The U.S. may ease restrictions on the UAE’s purchase of Nvidia’s advanced semiconductor chips amid preparations for President Donald Trump’s visit to the Gulf this month. While no decision has been made, the issue is considered a powerful bargaining card as the White House seeks greater investment from the UAE’s sovereign wealth funds and tech firms, Bloomberg reports. Trump met in March with Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, the UAE’s National Security Adviser and Chairman of sovereign funds ADIA and ADQ, who visited Washington in part to push for access to Nvidia chips. Access. During Sheikh Tahnoon’s trip, the UAE unveiled plans to spend as much as $1.4 trillion over the next decade on energy, semiconductors, AI infrastructure and manufacturing in the U.S.

Emirates airline has signed a deal with Greece that includes a codeshare with national carrier Aegean, expanding access to popular destinations such as Santorini, Mykonos and Rhodes. The deal is the cherry on top of a successful outreach mission for the Greek National Tourism Organization at the Arabian Travel Market in Dubai this week, Greek newspaper To Vima reports. Flydubai, which will already be operating flights to Mykonos, Santorini, and Corfu this season, is looking at introducing new routes by next year and potentially operating off-season flights. Qatar Airways is adding a route to the port city of Thessaloniki and mulling a 15% increase in seats on its long-haul flight from Australia to Athens.

💲 Sovereign Circuit

Public Investment Fund: The PIF has raised $1.25 billion through Islamic bonds that were heavily oversubscribed, attracting over $9 billion in investor orders.

Mubadala Capital: The Abu Dhabi asset manager plans to use its $10 billion investment in U.S.-based TWG Global to connect with popular sports franchises such as the Los Angeles Lakers, and U.K.’s Chelsea FC soccer team, benefiting in a similar way to Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund’s association with professional golf and tennis, Global SWF reports.

M42: M42’s Digital Health Solution platform and Reem Hospital have formed a joint venture to launch Nafas, a comprehensive digital mental health platform for Abu Dhabi residents.

↪↩ Closing Circuit

💰 Capital Influx: Foreign investment in Gulf stocks has surged, with equity inflows doubling to $60 billion by end-2024 and market capitalization reaching $4.2 trillion, Zawya reports.

💲 Syria Attracts: Syria has signed a $260 million deal with French shipping and logistics group CMA CGM to expand and operate Latakia port, the country’s main maritime gateway, Reuters reports

⛏️ Bitcoin Mine: Abu Dhabi-listed Phoenix Group has expanded its bitcoin mining operations in Ethiopia by securing an additional 52MW of power, boosting its total capacity there to 132MW and its global capacity to over 500MW across five countries.

💸 Aid Benefits: U.S. funding for Jordan’s $6 billion desalination project was briefly halted under aid cuts but resumed within two months, with assurances that most of Jordan’s $1.45 billion annual aid package would remain intact.

🗣 Circuit Chatter

₿ Crypto Blackouts: Kuwait is cracking down on cryptocurrency miners, blaming them for causing power shortages leading to blackouts, Reuters reports.

⛽ Gas Talks: QatarEnergy, one of the world’s biggest liquefied natural gas suppliers,, is in talks with Japan’s Jera and Mitsui firms for a long-term deal to supply LNG from its North Field expansion project, Reuters reports.

🏦 Mideast Hub: Bank of New York Mellon received a licence to set up a regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia, enabling it to bid on government contracts.

🌐 U.S. Expansion: UAE’s e& Carrier & Wholesale Services has launched e& Wholesale Americas in Miami, expanding its global presence across the Americas, the company said.

⛰️ Investor Magnet: Oman is seeking an additional $10 billion in foreign investment for tourism projects over the next few years, building on the $10 billion already secured since the pandemic to develop hotels and integrated tourism complexes.

🌍 Power Circuit

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed held a phone call on Thursday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who thanked him for the UAE’s mediation in a Russia-Ukraine exchange of prisoners last month.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Ruler of Dubai and the UAE Vice President and Prime Minister, toured the Arabian Travel Market 2025 conference ahead of its conclusion on Thursday.

Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, UAE National Security Advisor, posted on Instagram that he had a meeting with Tim Ferriss, American entrepreneur and author of “The 4-Hour Workweek,” and entrepreneur Naval Ravikant to discuss the importance of productivity and self-directed learning.

Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council, met Daniel Nobo, President of Ecuador, on Thursday in Abu Dhabi. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, also had a meeting with the Ecuadorian president. 

Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed, UAE Minister of Finance and First Deputy Ruler of Dubai, held a meeting in Dubai on Thursday with Masahiro Kihara, President and Group CEO of Mizuho Financial Group.

➿ On the Circuit

Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and ADNOC Group Managing Director and Group CEO, visited the Vienna headquarters of OMV. ADNOC and OMV agreed in March to merge their petrochemical units and establish the $60 billion thermoplastics giant Borouge Group International.

MrBeast, a YouTuber and businessman, has signed an agreement with Riyadh Season, in the presence of Saudi entertainment chief Turki Al-Sheikh, to produce exclusive content and appear at next season’s opening ceremony.

Phil Murphy, the New Jersey Governor, met with industry leaders during a privately held meeting of the U.S.-U.A.E. Business Council on Thursday at the Ritz-Carlton in Dubai. 

Elmer Schialer Salcedo, Peru’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, pitched boosting Peru’s $70 million share of South American exports to Saudi Arabia by promoting agricultural products and inviting Saudi investors to a September trade exhibition.

Hend Al Otaiba, former UAE Ambassador to France, reflects in an opinion piece for Khaleej Times on the value of her connection with Léa Solidarité Femmes, a French association supporting survivors of abuse.

🎶 Culture Circuit

🖼️ Art Sale: The latest auction of Middle Eastern & Contemporary Art by Christie’s features an all-star lineup of artists reflecting the diversity of creative influences that shape the region. An exhibition of the sale starts tomorrow at Christie’s Dubai, with bids continuing until May 8, when the online auction wraps up. Leading the listings in a tribute to female artists is Samia Halaby’s “Water Lilies,” with an estimate of $100,000-$150,000.

📷 Photo of the Day

Eric Trump, World Liberty Financial co-founder Zach Witkoff, and Justin Sun, the founder of cryptocurrency TRON, participate in a session during the Token 2049 crypto conference in Dubai on Thursday. (Giuseppe Cacace /AFP via Getty Images)
Eric Trump, World Liberty Financial co-founder Zach Witkoff, and Justin Sun, the founder of cryptocurrency TRON, participate in a session during the Token 2049 crypto conference in Dubai on Thursday. (Giuseppe Cacace /AFP via Getty Images)

📅 Circuit Calendar

April 25 – May 11, Dubai. Dubai Esports and Gaming Festival. Dubai’s gaming and esports extravaganza brings together global players, creators, fans, and industry leaders. Dubai World Trade Center. 

May 4 – 7, Los Angeles. Milken Institute Global Conference. Business executives, government officials and thought leaders address some of the world’s biggest opportunities and challenges. Beverly Hilton.

May 5-6, Abu Dhabi. Governance of Emerging Technologies Summit. Shaping Responsible Governance of AI & Emerging Technologies in a Future Digital Economy. St. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort.

May 6-7, Dubai. MENA Capital Market Summit. The event will bring together 1,500 businesses, decision-makers and global financial leaders to discuss the capital market. Madinat Jumeirah.

May 6-8, Dubai. Airport Show. Showcasing the latest technological advancements in the airport industry. Dubai World Trade Center.

May 6-8, Dubai, GISEC. The 14th edition of the Middle East and North Africa’s largest cybersecurity event, under the theme “Securing an AI-Powered Future.” Dubai World Trade Center. 

May 12-13, Dubai. Dubai FinTech Summit. Exploring a future where finance is accessible, inclusive, and empowering. Madinat Jumeirah.

May 13, Riyadh. Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum. An invitation-only event to be held during U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia. The forum will bring together government, business, finance and innovation to discuss the next chapter of business between the two countries. Venue TBA.

May 13-14, Dubai. Low Carbon Fuels MENA. The conference promises a space for industry leaders, potential partners, and innovators to discuss potential opportunities and challenges. Sheraton Dubai Creek Hotel & Towers.  

May 13-15, Dubai. CABSAT. The Middle East & Africa’s leading event for content, broadcast, media & entertainment industry professionals looking to leverage the latest technology and innovation in creating the next-gen content. Dubai World Trade Center.

May 13-15, Dubai. World Police Summit. Uniting law enforcement professionals, policymakers, industry leaders, and innovators to redefine the standards of modern policing. Dubai World Trade Center.

May 16, Milan. Investopia Europe 3rd Edition. Highlighting discussions around transforming the global economy. Featured speakers include Abdulla bin Touq Al Marri, UAE Minister of Economy and Chairman of Investopia, and UAE Minister of State for Entrepreneurship Alia Abdulla Al Mazrouei. Palazzo Mezzanotte.

May 16-17, Tirana, Albania. FII Priority Europe 2025. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund sponsors a regional business summit focused on Europe and is affiliated with the annual Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh. National Theater of Opera and Ballet.

May 20-22, Doha, Qatar. Qatar Economic Forum. Annual conference bringing together Qatari government and business leaders with corporate executives, investors and policymakers from around the world. Media City Qatar.

May 26-27, Abu Dhabi. Building the Future Summit. This Forbes event serves as an exclusive platform for industry leaders, investors, architects, and innovators to explore the latest trends shaping the future of real estate. Louvre Abu Dhabi.

May 29-30, Tripoli, Libya. Building the Future Summit. A Forbes event that is designed to help delegates from Libya understand their investment opportunities, foster strategic partnerships, and showcase key reforms that will drive economic progress. Venue TBA.