OPEC predicts decline in demand, driven by China’s slowdown

The world’s oil producers are bracing for a decline in global demand next year and lower-than-expected sales through 2029 amid a slowdown in China’s economic growth and its expanded use of alternative fuels.

The forecast is contained in OPEC’s 2025 World Oil Outlook, which was published today in connection with the organization’s biennial International Seminar taking place in Vienna, Austria.

In the long run, however, OPEC sees demand rising again in 2030 as consumption grows in India, the Middle East and Africa. Among the factors for the predicted rebound are expectations that many countries will miss their climate goals for transitioning to sustainable fuels.

World oil demand in 2026 will average 106.3 million barrels per day, down from 108 million bpd last year, OPEC said in the report. It expects demand to grow steadily to 111.6 million bpd in 2029, which is below previous forecasts.

Behind the expected cut in demand is the economic slowdown in China, which is the world’s biggest oil importer. Other factors cited were China’s embrace of electric vehicles and their charging infrastructure along with increased use of solar power and other sustainable energy sources.

Amid the expectations for next year’s decline in oil demand, the OPEC+ group – which comprises both OPEC members and other producers including Russia – announced on Saturday that it will further lift mandated supply limits in August to regain market share after years of cuts.

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais said today that the group sees signs of strong demand during the current year, driven by China and India as well as a “booming” aviation season and an uptick in U.S. gasoline demand. In an interview with CNBC he cited the importance of uninterrupted oil supply around the world, warning that conflicts in the Middle East and U.S. sanctions threaten to undermine that.

UAE exploring potential for second nuclear power facility

Amid efforts by all the Gulf states to wean their economies off dependence on oil and develop alternative fuels, the UAE is pushing to get more of its power from nuclear energy.

Four months after the UAE’s Barakah nuclear plant became 100% operational, the government is exploring the possibility of building a second nuclear facility, Reuters reports.

“The government is looking at this option, Hamad Alkaabi, the UAE’s Ambassador to Austria and Permanent Representative to the UN’s nuclear agency, told the news agency.

“No final decision has been made in terms of the tender process but I can tell you that the government is actively exploring this option.”

Any contract for a new nuclear power plant would be worth tens of billions of dollars and could attract tender bids from China, Russia and the U.S., among others, Reuters said.

The government has yet to budget for a second power plant or decide on the size or the location, but Alkaabi said it was possible a tender could be issued this year.