PLUNGING PRODUCTION

As prices hover around the $100-a-barrel mark, OPEC is reporting a steep decline in oil production attributed to the Iran war, which has blocked sea routes and damaged infrastructure. Looking further ahead, the International Energy Agency said oil demand will decline this year for the first time since the 2020 pandemic as the surge in prices restricts growth.  “The Iran war has thoroughly upended the global outlook for oil consumption,” the IEA says in its monthly report. “Demand destruction will spread as scarcity and higher prices persist.” The paralysis of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has also sent aluminum prices soaring to a four-year high, stoked by the stalling of U.S. peace talks with Iran that have increased concerns over supply chains.

REINVENTING TOURISM

UAE tourism needs to “reinvent itself” to recover from the impact of regional war, officials and hospitality players told a special meeting convened to address the industry in crisis. From the dazzling Dubai Gold Souk and Burj Khalifa to Abu Dhabi’s cluster of brand new museums, the normally bustling sites that are the engine of the country’s tourism economy have fallen quiet since the start of the war. At a newly formed Tourism Majlis, organized by the Ministry of Economy and Tourism, leaders gathered to confront a sharp drop in visitors following the Iran crisis and share ideas to shape a coordinated recovery plan. Chaired by Ras Al Khaimah Ruler Sheikh Saud bin Saqr Al Qasimi, the discussion stressed that recovery would require a clear, unified strategy rather than quick fixes, with a focus on collaboration across all seven emirates.

Mubadala: Brazilian state-run oil firm Petrobras is in initial negotiations with Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala to repurchase the Mataripe refinery in Brazil, Reuters reports. 

Public Investment Fund: flyadeal, Saudi Arabia’s low-cost airline owned by the PIF, is launching scheduled flights between Jeddah and Dubai and restoring its route between Riyadh and Dubai that was suspended during the war with Iran.

Qatar Investment Authority: Golden Goose, the luxury Italian sneaker brand which counts the QIA among its shareholders, is marketing a $1 billion bond sale to prepare for its acquisition by Chinese private equity firm HSG.

Qatar Investment Authority: Al Rayan Bank, whose shareholders include QIA, intends to increase its capital to $67.6 million in its U.K. subsidiary.

🤖 AI Bet: Golden Gate Ventures’ MENA fund invested an undisclosed amount in Invisible Technologies, a San Francisco-based AI company.

🌍 Mineral Push: Botswana signed agreements with Oman to explore energy and mineral resources during a visit to the sultanate this week by Botswana’s President Duma Boko.

🚇 Metro Branding: The city of Riyadh launched bids for naming rights to five metro stations, opening a new revenue stream as the kingdom expands its public transport network.

💵 Debt Relief: The Central Bank of Bahrain will defer loans and provide liquidity of up to $18.5 billion to support Bahrain’s economy and the financial sector.

🏢 Swiss Outpost: Finreon, a Swiss quantitative asset manager, expanded to the Middle East by opening a representative office in the Dubai International Financial Centre.

💲 Funding Terrorism: French cement company Lafarge was fined $1.2 million by a court in Paris, and former CEO Bruno Lafont was sentenced to six years in prison for paying ISIS and other armed groups protection money in Syria.

📺 Standing Strong: More than 1,000 film and TV figures, including Joaquin Phoenix, Ben Stiller, and Kristen Stewart, signed an open letter opposing Paramount Skydance’s Gulf-backed planned acquisition of Warner Bros.

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed met with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain during his trip to Manama on Monday.

Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, met in Beijing with China’s President Xi Jinping. The meeting was also attended by Sheikh Zayed bin Mohamed, the son of UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed; Khaldoon Al Mubarak, Special Envoy of the UAE President to China and Managing Director and Group CEO of Mubadala; Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and ADNOC Group CEO; Mohamed Hassan Alsuwaidi, Minister of Investment; Dr. Thani Al Zeyoudi, Minister of Foreign Trade; and Lana Nusseibeh, Minister of State at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs, met with Ayman Safadi, Jordan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, on Monday in Abu Dhabi to discuss regional developments and security challenges.

Khaldoon Al Mubarak, Special Envoy of the UAE President to China and Managing Director and Group CEO of Mubadala, held a meeting on Monday in Beijing with Wang Yi, China’s Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Abdulla bin Touq, UAE Minister of Economy and Tourism, met with an Uzbek delegation including Jamshid Khodjaev, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Investment and Foreign Trade, and Laziz Kudratov, Minister of Investment, Industry and Trade, on Monday.

Khaled Darwish, HSBC’s Head of Debt Capital Markets for Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, will join Bank of America as Head of Middle East and North Africa Corporate Banking in Dubai, Bloomberg reports.

🍽️ Quiet Night Out: Restaurants and chefs across the UAE are adapting to a new reality as regional conflict and a lack of tourists reshapes the hospitality industry. Customers are trading in flashy high-end experiences for quieter, neighborhood dinners, The National reports. As a result, venues are making subtle changes to cater to more intimate gatherings, from introducing warmer lighting and softer music to slowing down the pace of the food service. “It’s less about volume and more about intention,” Sven Mostegl, founder of Sven The Baker’s Kitchen in Dubai, told the newspaper. “There’s a quieter, more grounded energy in the room.”

April 20-22, Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi Global Entrepreneurship Festival 2026. Bringing entrepreneurs, investors and experts to support innovation, partnerships and economic diversification. Abu Dhabi Energy Centre. 

April 20-22, Riyadh. Future Aviation Forum. Exploring the future of air transport, sustainability, advanced air mobility, and artificial intelligence. King Abdulaziz International Conference Center.

May 4-7, Abu Dhabi. Make It In The Emirates. The UAE’s industrial promotion board celebrates its fifth anniversary. ADNEC.

May 11-13, Abu Dhabi. Ai Everything. A one day summit combined with a two-day expo explores how AI and humans can work together. ADNEC.

May 12-14, Dubai. Airport Show & Global Airport Leaders Forum. Bringing together top airport suppliers, aviation leaders, and thousands of professionals. Dubai World Trade Center. 

May 19-21, Abu Dhabi. World Utilities Congress. Global policymakers, industry leaders and innovators discuss transforming the power, water and utilities sector into resilient, low‑carbon systems ADNEC. 

May 19-21, Damascus. Big5 Construct Syria. The inaugural edition of the platform for reconstruction and development. Syria Expo Center.

May 19-21, Riyadh. Middle East Museums & Heritage Expo. Saudi Arabia’s first dedicated museums, heritage and cultural development trade show. Riyadh Front Exhibition & Convention Center.

May 8-24, Dubai. Dubai Esports & Games Festival. More than two weeks of events, tournaments, game launches and free activities citywide, including GameExpo 2026. Dubai World Trade Center. 

TROUBLED LUXURY

Faltering sales in Dubai are threatening a much-needed recovery for the luxury retail market, just as LVMH, Kering and Hermès prepare to report earnings. Revenues at Mall of the Emirates were down 30-50% for some brands in March compared to the same period last year, while footfall declines across flagship retail hubs, including a steeper slump at Dubai Mall, point to a broader pullback in discretionary spending among tourists and residents alike. Even relatively resilient locations such as The Galleria Al Maryah Island in Abu Dhabi recorded weaker sales, suggesting the downturn is spreading beyond Dubai’s tourism-dependent economy. The figures cast doubt on the Middle East’s role as a rare growth engine for luxury brands, as geopolitical tensions threaten to delay an already fragile global recovery in the sector, Reuters reports.

BUYING MAYFAIR

Famed London venues including celebrity haunt Annabel’s and the Ivy restaurant chain are now in the hands of Abu Dhabi’s royal family. A unit of International Holding Co., the vast conglomerate led by UAE National Security Advisor Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, purchased a majority stake in British businessman Richard Caring’s hospitality business in a deal valued at around $1.4 billion. The deal includes a portfolio of luxury restaurants and clubs, including the decadent and exclusive Annabel’s, the only nightclub ever visited by Queen Elizabeth II. Caring will stay on as Executive Chairman and will lead an international expansion in collaboration with IHC unit Diafa, which already owns high-end restaurants including Zuma and Roka via U.K.-headquartered Azumi Group, Arabian Business Insight reports.

Mubadala: Emirates Global Aluminium, a conglomerate owned by the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, declared force majeure for certain products after war-related damage to its Al Taweelah plant.

Qatar Energy: TotalEnergies E&P Congo, in which QatarEnergy is a shareholder, announced a new hydrocarbon discovery off the coast of Congo.

L’imad Holding: Etihad Airways, part of Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund L’imad Holding, announced an expansion of its mainland China network, with five new routes and 28 additional weekly flights.

🚂 Railway Business: Saudi Railways launched five new freight logistics routes to connect ports along the Arabian Gulf with central and northern regions of the kingdom.

✈️ Jet Deployment: Pakistan sent fighter jets to Saudi Arabia under a defense pact to strengthen the kingdom’s security during the regional conflict.

🏗️ Master Plan: UAE-based luxury developer Sobha Realty announced today its entry into the Abu Dhabi market with the launch of $10.9 billion Sobha City, a master-planned residential community located in Al Bahia.

⚡ Energy Coverage: Equity research firm Bernstein initiated coverage of the MENA energy sector, naming ADNOC Gas and Fertiglobe as its two top picks.

💰 Sum Seeker: Pakistan is in talks with Saudi Arabia and China to step in and provide financing of more than $3.5 billion after the UAE declined to roll over a similar-sized loan, Bloomberg reports.

🏡 Bubble Burst: New rental contracts in Dubai fell sharply in March as regional tensions linked to the Israel-U.S. war with Iran weighed on demand.

⛽ Gas Fields: Oman’s Ministry of Energy and Minerals is offering five concession areas in the oil and gas sector for competition among local and international petroleum companies.

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed met with India’s Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in Abu Dhabi on Sunday to discuss regional developments.

Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, arrived in Beijing on Monday for an official visit.

Sheikh Maktoum bin Mohammed, UAE Minister of Finance and Chairman of the Dubai International Financial Centre, met with Bruce Flatt, CEO of Toronto-based asset manager Brookfield Corp., to discuss investment cooperation.

Badr Jafar, Special Envoy of the UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs for Business and Philanthropy, wrote in an opinion column for The New York Times that “oil for security” is no longer the sole basis for the UAE-U.S. relationship. “It is a 360-degree partnership – economic, technological, cultural and human –  that has been built quietly over decades by businesses, universities, hospitals and millions of individual choices,” Jafar writes.

Francis Belin, CEO of Mytheresa, told the Financial Times that the luxury retailer is eyeing further expansion in the Middle East despite the ongoing war.  

Bader Al-Ghanim was appointed as food delivery company Talabat’s Chief International Officer, a newly established role aimed at strengthening collaboration and driving consistent execution across markets within the MENA region.

🎤 Yodeling Mishap: American singer-songwriter and actress Sabrina Carpenter has apologized after mistaking an Arabic celebratory ululation from a fan as yodeling during her performance at Coachella on Friday. Clips from the set showed Carpenter reacting to a fan performing a zaghrouta. “I think I heard someone yodel. Is that what you’re doing? I don’t like it,” she said on stage. Carpenter later wrote on social media platform X that she had learned what it was and “welcomed all cheers and yodels from here on out.”

April 20-22, Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi Global Entrepreneurship Festival 2026. Bringing entrepreneurs, investors and experts to support innovation, partnerships and economic diversification. Abu Dhabi Energy Centre. 

April 20-22, Riyadh. Future Aviation Forum. Exploring the future of air transport, sustainability, advanced air mobility, and artificial intelligence. King Abdulaziz International Conference Center.

May 4-7, Abu Dhabi. Make It In The Emirates. The UAE’s industrial promotion board celebrates its fifth anniversary. ADNEC.

May 11-13, Abu Dhabi. Ai Everything. A one day summit combined with a two-day expo explores how AI and humans can work together. ADNEC.

May 12-14, Dubai. Airport Show & Global Airport Leaders Forum. Bringing together top airport suppliers, aviation leaders, and thousands of professionals. Dubai World Trade Center. 

May 19-21, Abu Dhabi. World Utilities Congress. Global policymakers, industry leaders and innovators discuss transforming the power, water and utilities sector into resilient, low‑carbon systems ADNEC. 

May 19-21, Damascus. Big5 Construct Syria. The inaugural edition of the platform for reconstruction and development. Syria Expo Center.

May 19-21, Riyadh. Middle East Museums & Heritage Expo. Saudi Arabia’s first dedicated museums, heritage and cultural development trade show. Riyadh Front Exhibition & Convention Center.

May 8-24, Dubai. Dubai Esports & Games Festival. More than two weeks of events, tournaments, game launches and free activities citywide, including GameExpo 2026. Dubai World Trade Center. 

DRONE DIPLOMACY

Ukraine is expanding the circle of Gulf customers for its battle-tested drone technology. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told reporters in Kyiv on Thursday that he held discussions in Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain on new military partnerships connected to Ukrainian-developed unmanned aircraft systems, Reuters reports. Ukraine has already negotiated security agreements with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar while sending more than 200 personnel to the region to advise on interceptor systems and electronic warfare. Zelenskiy said Ukraine is negotiating additional 10-year cooperation frameworks and using its experience in fighting Russia to showcase its ability to shoot down Iranian drones.

SKIN IN THE GAME

China’s support for Iran has been tempered by its growing investments across the Middle East, where it has deployed about $270 billion since the pandemic. The region has been a key beneficiary of President Xi Jinping’s Belt & Road initiative, with Chinese investment and construction growing at its fastest pace of anywhere in the world, Bloomberg reports. Between 2014 and 2023, China provided roughly $2.34 in financing to Middle East countries for every $1 provided by the United States, the news agency added. Dubai airport, Jebel Ali power plant and Ras Laffan industrial complex are among the projects that received loans from Chinese state-owned creditors worth about $4.66 billion, according to AidData estimates. China, traditionally one of Iran’s biggest allies, has played a key role in convincing the country’s leaders to agree to the two-week ceasefire.

ADNOC: Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, Group CEO and Managing Director of the UAE’s national oil company, posted on X for the first time with the words, “We’ll emerge stronger,” and the text of the UAE’s national anthem.

Mubadala: Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed, UAE Vice President, Deputy Prime Minister, Chairman of the Presidential Court, and Chairman of the sovereign wealth fund, wrote in the annual report that Mubadala is moving forward with a “clear vision” that aligns with the future direction of the UAE.

Oman Investment Authority: Abdulsalam Mohammed Al Murshidi, Chairman of OIA, met with a Libyan delegation to review further joint cooperation, as well as investment opportunities in Libya. Meanwhile, National Bank of Belarus Chairman Raman Halouchanka met with OIA’s Chief Investment Officer Ibrahim Al-Eisri on Thursday to discuss potential investments. 

Emirates Development Bank: The state-owned bank plans to approve up to $2.45 billion in funding this year to support local industrial growth.

💲 New Finance: UAE telecom company du has refinanced its revolving credit facility with a new $545 million agreement led by Emirates NBD and other major banks.

✈️ Mutual Benefit: Dubai Aerospace Enterprise and Blackstone Credit & Insurance have agreed to launch a platform to invest $1.6 billion annually in building and leasing a portfolio of commercial aircraft.

💰Foreign Investor: U.K. foreign direct investment in Oman rose 11% to $42 billion in 2025, making it the largest investor, as total FDI surpassed $81 billion.

✈️ Flight Cuts: British Airways is cutting Middle East flights and shifting capacity to Asia and Africa as carriers respond to security risks and weaker demand linked to the conflict.

🪙 Flexible Working: Cryptocurrency exchange Binance said it is offering temporary relocation to employees based in the UAE, where it has around 1,000 staff members, Bloomberg reports.

🏦Loan Request: Egypt is considering asking the IMF for a $3 billion loan, as foreign investment declines and economic pressures mount due to rising energy costs linked to the Iran war.

🛢️ Gas Bet: Egypt committed to buying the full output from Cyprus’ Aphrodite gas field, advancing plans to process and re-export offshore gas through its LNG facilities.

🏟️ Track Delay: The Diamond League season opener track competition in Doha has been postponed from May to June 19 due to security concerns tied to the Middle East conflict.

Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, met in Doha today with U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The British leader met on Thursday night with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain.

Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Chairman of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council, met with Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield Asset Management.

Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Saudi Foreign Minister, held a phone call with his Pakistani counterpart Mohammad Ishaq Dar on Thursday.

Sheikha Latifa bint Mohammed, Chairperson of the Dubai Culture and Arts Authority, met with key representatives from across Dubai’s cultural and creative ecosystem for a workshop at Etihad Museum on Thursday.

Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi, CEO of Masdar, received the Sustainable Markets Initiative’s Terra Carta & Astra Carta Award, presented by King Charles III.

Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF, said the Middle East war could drive demand for as much as $50 billion in additional support from the international finance agency.

Khalaf Al Habtoor, Emirati billionaire and Chairman of Al Habtoor Group, plans to invest $1.4 billion in building a commercial tower within Al Habtoor City in Dubai.

Peter Hoeschele, an OpenAI Executive who played a key role in getting the Stargate effort off the ground, Shamez Hemani, who worked on compute strategy and business development, as well as Anuj Saharan, have all left the company, The Information reports.

🎭 Riviera Relevance: The 2026 Cannes Film Festival, its 79th edition, has unveiled a program spanning Competition, Un Certain Regard and other official sections. Three Red Sea Film Initiative-backed titles have been selected. Among them is “Parallel Tales,” an Asghar Farhadi project supported by the Red Sea Film Foundation. The film, a reinterpretation of Krzysztof Kieślowski’s “Dekalog VI,” features an ensemble cast including Isabelle Huppert, Virginie Efira, Vincent Cassel, Pierre Niney, Adam Bessa and Catherine Deneuve.

April 7-9, Marrakesh. GITEX Africa. Africa’s biggest tech and startup conference. Place Bab Jdid on Boulevard Al Yarmouk

April 20-22, Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi Global Entrepreneurship Festival 2026. Bringing entrepreneurs, investors and experts to support innovation, partnerships and economic diversification. Abu Dhabi Energy Centre. 

April 20-22, Riyadh. Future Aviation Forum. Exploring the future of air transport, sustainability, advanced air mobility, and artificial intelligence. King Abdulaziz International Conference Center.

May 4-7, Abu Dhabi. Make It In The Emirates. The UAE’s industrial promotion board celebrates its fifth anniversary. ADNEC.

May 11-13, Abu Dhabi. Ai Everything. A one day summit combined with a two-day expo explores how AI and humans can work together. ADNEC.

May 12-14, Dubai. Airport Show & Global Airport Leaders Forum. Bringing together top airport suppliers, aviation leaders, and thousands of professionals. Dubai World Trade Center. 

May 19-21, Abu Dhabi. World Utilities Congress. Global policymakers, industry leaders and innovators discuss transforming the power, water and utilities sector into resilient, low‑carbon systems ADNEC. 

May 19-21, Damascus. Big5 Construct Syria. The inaugural edition of the platform for reconstruction and development. Syria Expo Center.

May 19-21, Riyadh. Middle East Museums & Heritage Expo. Saudi Arabia’s first dedicated museums, heritage and cultural development trade show. Riyadh Front Exhibition & Convention Center.

May 8-24, Dubai. Dubai Esports & Games Festival. More than two weeks of events, tournaments, game launches and free activities citywide, including GameExpo 2026. Dubai World Trade Center.