The Daily Circuit: Sliding oil prices + Investcorp acquires Miebach stake
👋 Hello from the Middle East!
In the Daily Circuit today, we’re looking at Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed’s opening day in Washington, Investcorp’s acquisition of a majority stake in Germany’s Miebach logistics firm, Saudi Arabia’s S&P credit upgrade and the impact of wealthy Gulf collectors on the global luxury watch market. But first, sliding oil prices.
Oil prices are likely to keep falling this year as OPEC+ lifts production limits and Trump administration import tariffs depress U.S. economic growth.
That’s the forecast from Goldman Sachs, which cut its price forecast for the benchmark Brent crude by $5 to $71 a barrel on Sunday.
“The medium-term risks to our forecast remain to the downside given potential further tariff escalation and potentially longer OPEC+ production increases,” Goldman Sachs said.
Other factors affecting oil prices could include the U.S. order to continue attacking sites in Yemen controlled by the Houthis if they continue menacing Red Sea shipping, the bank said.
Citigroup, meanwhile, sees the prospect of oil falling to $65 and a resulting slowdown in drilling for new supplies.
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📰 Developing Stories
WASHINGTON VISIT
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, the UAE’s National Security Adviser and one of its most prominent business leaders, starts a visit to the U.S. today with both political and economic dimensions. In Washington, Sheikh Tahnoon will meet with several Trump administration officials at the White House, according to a statement from the Abu Dhabi Media Office. “The meetings will focus on advancing economic and technology ties between the two countries,” the statement said. “Discussions will also cover ongoing regional challenges and strengthening the decades-long U.S.-UAE strategic partnership.”
CURTAILING CONSULTANTS
Saudi Arabia is cutting back on handing out fat contracts to foreign consulting firms, challenging an industry that is already under pressure around the world. Among the firms hit by the new practices are Boston Consulting Group, PwC and Roland Berger, Bloomberg reports. The shift in Saudi Arabia derives in part from lower crude prices and widening fiscal deficits. Still, the kingdom has long relied on the expertise of major consulting firms to build mega projects like Neom and can’t carry out its costly ambitions without the help from abroad.
💲 Sovereign Circuit
Public Investment Fund: New Murabba, the PIF-backed megaproject that features a golden skyscraper-sized cube in Riyadh, courted investors last week at the MIPIM 2025 conference in Cannes, France.
International Holding Co.: IHC-owned NMDC Energy said it won a $2.6 billion engineering, procurement and construction contract for an unidentified major Abu Dhabi energy project.
Mubadala: ADNOC is considering acquiring Mubadala’s energy assets, with talks expected to resume after Ramadan following earlier valuation disputes, Bloomberg reports. If finalized, Mubadala will focus only on healthcare, finance, and technology while strengthening ADNOC’s oil and gas portfolio.
↪↩ Closing Circuit
🤝 German Logistics: Bahrain’s Investcorp, the biggest alternative asset manager in the Middle East, signed an agreement to acquire a majority stake in German supply chain and logistics consultancy Miebach. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.
📈 Credit Score: S&P raised Saudi Arabia’s credit rating to A+ – its fifth highest – from A, citing the impact of the kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic transformation plan in boosting key industries and providing stability for the economy.
⚡ Gas Bids: Morocco will soon launch a $6 billion tender to develop and restructure its natural gas infrastructure, Leila Benali, Minister of Energy Transition and Sustainable Development, announced during the S&P Global CERAWeek energy conference last week in Houston, Tex.
✈️ Jet Deal: Dubai Aerospace Enterprise announced it will spend $1 billion to acquire 17 aircraft, most of them made by Airbus and several by Boeing.
🌿 Eco Finance: Saudi Arabia launched a $266.6 million environmental financing initiative, backed by Riyad Bank, to encourage private sector participation in sustainable and eco-friendly projects.
🗣 Circuit Chatter
👷🏽 Labor Protection: Indonesia plans to cancel its decade-long moratorium on sending citizens to Saudi Arabia for jobs as domestic workers and in other industries after receiving assurances of stricter labor protections from the kingdom, the Jakarta Globe reports, An alarming number of domestic workers, mostly East African women, have died in Saudi Arabia over the past five years, The New York Times reports.
🛢️ Gas Exploration: U.K.-based Capricorn Energy is in advanced talks with state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corp. to secure better terms for gas concessions in Egypt’s Western Desert region.
🪖 Military Tech: U.S. venture capital firms are investing in Israeli military tech startups that have emerged since the country went to war in Gaza and Lebanon, The Wall Street Journal reports.
🚣♀️ Boating Hub: The World Rowing Federation plans to host a series of global events in the UAE starting in 2027, with activities including coastal rowing, indoor rowing and virtual rowing.
🌍 Power Circuit
UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed met with Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao in Abu Dhabi last week. Abu Dhabi-owned tech fund MGX said on March 12 it had invested $2 billion in the crypto-trading platform.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, Qatar’s Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, met with Denis Manturov, First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, in Doha on Sunday.
➿ On the Circuit
Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, is among 72 executives from some of the world’s biggest companies who have been invited to meet in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping in late March as China seeks to fend off Trump administration tariffs, the Financial Times reports.
Anwar Gargash, Diplomatic Adviser to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, will be a featured speaker at the Raisina Dialogue 2025 in New Delhi this week.
John Kerry, the former U.S. Secretary of State and White House Climate Envoy said that Saudi Aramco and other big oil companies have been “intimidated” by the Trump administration into dropping green targets, putting them on “the wrong side of history,” the Financial Times reports.
Abdullah Muhammad Al Ansari, has been appointed Chief Executive Officer of Qatar’s stock exchange. Al Ansari has served as Director of Qatari Funds at QIA, Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund, since 2022.
Adel Salem Al Wahedi, the Chief Financial Officer of Dubai-listed district cooling company Tabreed, wrote in the company’s 2024 annual report that it aims to expand through acquisitions and organic growth in the UAE and global markets.
🎶 Culture Circuit
⌚ Telling Time: Collectors in the Gulf and wider Middle East are influencing the evolution of the global luxury watch industry with their desire for rare and bespoke pieces that reflect regional heritage, The National reports. “The deep-rooted relationships nurtured with collectors here and further afield are pivotal, yet it’s the market’s richness, cultivated over decades and notably propelled by commissions from royal houses and ministries, that truly sets it apart,” Remy Julia, head of watches at Christie’s Middle East, told the newspaper.
📷 Photo of the Day
📅 Circuit Calendar
March 1-30, Abu Dhabi. Ramadan and Eid exhibition. The exhibition will showcase companies displaying an array of fashion, accessories, perfumes and other gifts. ADNEC.
March 1-19, Dubai. Nad El Sheba Sports Tournament. Organized by the Dubai Sports Council, NAS Sports Tournament is the biggest event of its kind and takes place every year during Ramadan. Nad Al Sheba Sports Complex.
March 6-23, Dubai. Ramadan Food Festival. The free festival features a curated selection of restaurants across five zones. Sheikh Hamdan Colony, Karama.
March 10-14, Houston, Texas: S&P Global CERAWeek. Gathering of top energy industry executives from around the world. Hilton Americas-Houston.
March 17-19, New Delhi, India. Raisina Dialogue 2025. Public policy conference brings world leaders, executives, economists and policymakers to India’s capital.
March 17-19, Dubai. Dubai International Horse Fair. A gathering of the equestrian industry and horse lovers from around the world. Dubai World Trade Centre.
April 7-9, Abu Dhabi. AIMCongress 2025. An investment platform bringing together thought leaders, decision-makers and entrepreneurs. ADNEC.
April 7-9, Dubai. Middle East Energy. Bringing together international energy suppliers to discuss products and solutions. Dubai World Trade Centre.
April 11-13, Sakhir, Bahrain. F1 Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix. Formula 1 racing returns to the Gulf island state. Bahrain International Circuit.
April 13-15, Riyadh. Saudi Food Manufacturing. Back for a second year, the focus turns to logistics solutions, including advancements in AI-driven supply chains, robotics, and sustainable automation technologies. Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Centre.
April 14-16, Dubai. IPS Congress. The Middle East’s largest international property sales event. Dubai World Trade Centre.
April 15-17, Dubai. Abu Dhabi Global Health Week. A critical worldwide forum dedicated to shaping the future of health. ADNEC.
April 16-17, Dubai. FastBull Finance Summit Dubai. Focused on the depth and breadth of global finance, emphasizing areas such as forex and blockchain financial technology. Coca-Cola Arena.
April 17-19, Dubai. World Art Dubai. A four-day art fair featuring more than 10,000 artworks. Dubai World Trade Centre.
April 18-20, Abu Dhabi. Middle East Film and Comic Con 2025. The region’s largest pop culture festival returns for its 13th year. ADNEC.
April 21-23, Abu Dhabi. Electric Vehicle Innovation Summit 2025. The Middle East’s largest annual event dedicated to shaping the future of electric mobility. ADNEC.
April 21-25, Dubai. Dubai AI Festival. Bringing together the brightest minds to explore and expand the commercial and economic possibilities of AI technology.” Madinat Jumeirah.
April 29-30, Abu Dhabi. Digital Transformation Summit UAE 2025. In its 37th edition, the summit is expected to be attended by over 300 C-suite executives, directors, and technology leaders. Sheraton Abu Dhabi Hotel and Resorts.
April 30. May 1, Dubai. Token2049 Dubai. A global conference dedicated to the crypto and blockchain ecosystem. Madinat Jumeirah.