The UAE’s decision to exit OPEC+ may chip away at the bloc’s influence over the oil market, but analysts say it probably won’t topple the 65-year-old organization anytime soon.

The immediate impact is likely to be more limited because the Iran war is already disrupting flows, but over time, the move could weaken OPEC+’s ability to manage production and stabilize prices.

“This exit is not about oil. It is about what oil revenues can build when they are freed from collective constraints,” Karan Gupta, a Director and strategic advisor at EY-Parthenon in Dubai, told The Circuit. It is about positioning the UAE as a strategic partner of choice for the world’s most consequential economies.”

Despite the change, Saudi Arabia and other core members are expected to keep the alliance intact, though the group may become less cohesive going forward. Outside the group, the UAE will have more flexibility to increase output without quota limits, allowing it to expand production capacity and compete for market share.

Once shipping access through the Strait of ​Hormuz is restored, the UAE will no longer be bound by OPEC+ production quotas and ​could gradually raise output, HSBC said in a research note. The bank estimates that ADNOC could lift production ‌to ⁠more than 4.5 million barrels per day, compared with an OPEC+ quota of about 3.4 million bpd for the May 2026 period.

“Signals have been there since Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan became president of the UAE. His agenda made it clear that the country aims to reach 5 million barrels per day of production by 2030,” said Mirco Neri, CEO and Dubai-based Co-Founder of Anvik Capital.

Among the factors that led to the UAE’s leaving OPEC were the continuous missile barrages from Iran, even though it belonged to the organization.

“The fact that a founding member’s aggression against UAE shipping and infrastructure has contributed to another member’s departure after nearly six decades tells you everything you need to know about OPEC’s internal coherence today,” Gupta said.

The UAE’s action may also signal to other members that they should rethink their place in the group, Kristin Diwan, a Senior Resident Scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, told The Circuit.

“I expect Emirati anger over what they see as a lack of leadership from Saudi Arabia in the Iran crisis has led them to value political accommodation less,” Diwan said. The UAE “will openly pursue their own regional strategy, based on their ties to Israel and the U.S., and are willing to break their connections to Arab and Islamic organizations, which they see as ineffective.” 

OPEC may not collapse, but its authority is gradually eroding and supply quotas are becoming harder to enforce, said Amena Bakr, Head of Middle East and OPEC+ Insights, at data intelligence firm Kpler.

“The group has been a force of stabilization and is needed to avoid constant boom and bust cycles and ensure that investment remains in the upstream sector,” Bakr said. “I don’t think this marks the collapse of OPEC. The group will evolve from here.”

Qatar has introduced emergency support measures to help foreign businesses affected by disruptions from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

The government is providing financial relief, including rent waivers, payment deferrals, flexible tax deadlines, and extended reporting requirements, through the Qatar Financial Center and the Qatar Free Zones Authority.

Invest Qatar is offering up to 40% in support for emergency expenses.

The agency is also holding weekly investment seminars and maintaining a 24/7 hotline. 

The UAE said it is quitting OPEC, delivering a powerful blow to the alliance amid disruptions to the global energy business triggered by the Iran war.

“This decision follows a comprehensive review of the UAE’s production policy and its current and future capacity and is based on our national interest and our commitment to contributing effectively to meeting the market’s pressing needs,” OPEC said on Tuesday in a statement carried by the UAE state news agency Wam.

The split with OPEC and the broader OPEC+ coalitiion, comes as Gulf producers struggle to move exports through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian threats and attacks have disrupted a key global sea channel and LNG transit route. The UAE said its departure will be effective May 1.

Tensions have been escalating since the UAE, the world’s seventh largest oil producer, criticized fellow Arab states for failing to adequately respond to Iranian attacks. Anwar Gargash, an advisor to UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed publicly condemned what he described as weak political and military support from both the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League.

“During our time in the organization, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all,” the OPEC statment said, “However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates and our commitment to our investors, customers, partners and global energy markets. This is what we will focus on going forward.”

The first LNG cargo to exit the Gulf since the Iran war began appears to have been shipped by ADNOC, putting the Abu Dhabi national oil company at the center of efforts to test whether energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz can resume.

Ship-tracking data show the Mubaraz loaded at ADNOC’s Das Island terminal and has now moved beyond the Gulf, marking the first confirmed LNG transit since late February after weeks of near-total paralysis, Bloomberg reports. 

ADNOC declined to comment on the specific shipment. “This is a developing situation and ADNOC continues to monitor developments closely while prioritizing the safety and security of its operations, people and assets,” the company said in a statement.

The massive tanker, which ⁠is managed by Adnoc Logistics & Services and was last seen in the Gulf ​on March 30, has shown up off the west coast of India, suggesting ​it crossed the Strait of Hormuz after several weeks without signal.

Meanwhile, a $500 million superyacht linked to sanctioned Russian billionaire Alexey Mordashov crossed the  Strait of Hormuz over the weekend from Dubai to Oman, raising questions about how it secured clearance, Reuters reports.

Saudi chemical maker SABIC has become a choke point in the global tech economy after Iran struck its Jubail complex earlier this month, knocking out production of a specialized plastic used to make circuit boards inside everything from smartphones to AI servers.

The material – PPE resin – helps electronic circuits run safely and reliably. SABIC supplies most of the global market, so when it went offline, manufacturers couldn’t get a key ingredient needed to build devices, Reuters reports.

Printed circuit board prices have jumped sharply as companies scramble for alternatives, with some increases nearing 40% this month alone.

The global printed circuit board industry is projected to increase by 12.5% to reach $95.8 billion in 2026, according to a recent report from Prismark.

Meanwhile, farmers worldwide are facing a fresh spike in fertilizer prices because of the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, which has halted exports of key inputs like urea, sulphur and ammonia from Qatar and other producers, Reuters reports.

The war in Iran has sent pistachio prices soaring to an eight-year high just as global demand surges for pistachio-based treats like Dubai chocolate.

As conflict has disrupted shipping routes and trade, exporting the crop from Iran – one of the world’s largest producers – has become increasingly difficult, tightening an already strained market.

Even before the conflict, global pistachio supply was under strain due to weaker 2025 harvests in the U.S., and Turkey, with drought hitting Iran particularly hard, The Financial Times reports.

Sanctions, domestic unrest and communications shutdowns further have disrupted Iran’s exports, making it harder to coordinate sales and slowing trade. 

The UAE has launched a 1 billion-dirham ($272 million) National Industrial Resilience Fund.

Announced on Sunday by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, the UAE’s Vice President and Ruler of Dubai,  the initiative aims to strengthen supply chains, expand local production and increase the use of artificial intelligence across industries.

The fund is being launched in advance of next week’s annual “Make it in the Emirates” forum in Abu Dhabi, and officials say it will prioritize key sectors of the economy such as food security, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and advanced technology.

The government will also be promoting thousands of locally made products through retail platforms connected to the “Make it in the Emirates” initiative.

Two UAE business leaders who advise President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed on security and technology matters visited U.S. President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, and made a swing through the U.S. to meet with SpaceX founder Elon Musk, investors Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, and defense firm Anduril.

Sheikh Mohammed bin Hamad Al Nahyan, Chairman of Abu Dhabi Airports, and Faisal Al Bannai, Chairman of state-owned defense conglomerate EDGE Group, traveled to Palm Beach, Florida, for the weekend meeting at Trump’s residence and resort, they said in posts on X. Both hold senior advisory posts in the UAE Presidential Court.

The two also met separately with Jared Kushner, founder of Miami-based private equity firm Affinity Partners and Trump’s son-in-law. They were joined throughout the trip by Sheikh Zayed bin Mohammed bin Hamad Al Nahyan, Sheikh Mohammed bin Hamad’s son. 

Before meeting Trump, the Emirati leaders traveled to San Francisco and discussed “possible areas of collaboration” with venture capitalists Andreessen and Horowitz, founders of A16Z, Al Bannai said in a post on X. Among those joining the various meeting was Abdallah Abu Sheikh, founder of Abu Dhabi-based Astra Tech, and CEO of Botim. Musk met them at another stop.

The group also visited U.S. defense contractor Anduril, with which EDGE signed an agreement in November to form a joint drone aircraft venture.