Dubai’s red-hot property market just blinked. After years of consistent gains, home prices in the emirate posted their first decline since the pandemic boom, with a key ValuStrat index falling 5.9% in March. 

The pullback from a 70% increase in the market since 2020 comes as regional tensions rattle investor confidence and deal flow begins to slow, even if much of the recent data still reflects transactions agreed months earlier, Bloomberg reports.

The value of Dubai residential sales dropped by nearly a fifth to $10.1 billion in March from the previous month, and the number of transactions dropped to about 13,000 from nearly 16,000, according to government data.

Prices are still roughly in line with where they were late last year, but the shift suggests momentum has stalled in a market that was fueled by an influx of foreign cash, wealthy expatriates and global investors. 

Developers are starting to adjust, offering incentives to keep buyers engaged, while some investors are pushing for discounts. The question now is whether this is a brief pause or the start of a broader reset.

Dubai has unveiled plans for a $9 billion Metro Gold Line, billed as the emirate’s largest transportation project ever, that will serve more than 1.5 million residents.

The project, which was announced on Wednesday by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, UAE Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, is a 42-kilometer (26-mile) underground line that will connect 15 key districts and link existing metro routes with Etihad Rail passenger services.

The Gold Line will add 18 stations and expand the network by 35%, running from Al Ghubaiba in the old part of Dubai to Jumeirah Golf Estates through major residential and commercial hubs.

The line is scheduled to open in 2032.

The UAE has moved to reassure markets that it has no liquidity problems or need for external financing, despite seeking assistance in the form of a currency swap with the U.S. amid the economic fallout from the Iran war.

U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that a currency swap, in which the Federal Reserve would likely lend dollars to the UAE Central bank in return for dirhams, was under consideration. 

“It’s been a good country. It’s been a good ally of ours. And, you know, these are unusual times,”he told CNBC on Tuesday when asked if the administration was weighing the plan, first reported by The Wall Street Journal on Sunday.

“I’m surprised, because they are really rich,” Trump said. “They’re very good for this country, so yeah, if I could help them, I would.”

Yousef Al Otaiba, the UAE’s Ambassador to the U.S. and a Minister of State, quickly clarified the UAE’s position, saying that “any suggestion that the UAE requires external financial backing misreads the facts.”

“The UAE is one of the world’s most financially resilient economies, underpinned by more than $2 trillion in sovereign investment assets,” he said, adding “we very much appreciate President Trump’s recognition of the UAE as one of America’s most important economic & trade partners.”

Dubai plans to build a train line to streamline travel between Dubai International Airport and its growing air hub at Al Maktoum 55 kilometers (34 miles) away.

The new Airport Express will be part of the Dubai Metro and include five stations, providing services such as remote check-in, baggage drop-off, and security screening.

Dubai International Airport (DXB), currently handles most passenger traffic, while Dubai World Central-Al Maktoum International Airport (DWC) is being expanded in stages to eventually take over as the emirate’s primary airport.

The train is planned to start at the Dubai Metro’s Red Line station at DXB, pass through Al Jaddaf and Jumeirah Village Circle, and end at DWC, with additional spur lines linking to Emirates Golf Club and Business Bay.

Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority has invited consultants to bid on designing the proposed airport shuttle by June.

Kuwait has extended a force majeure declaration that now covers about 2 million barrels a day of crude and refined products as the Strait of Hormuz shutdown blocks tanker traffic.

The move lets state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp. suspend delivery obligations it can’t meet under current conditions. This isn’t new – KPC had already declared force majeure earlier in the conflict – but the latest notice expands it across the country’s export system as disruptions drag on, Bloomberg reports.

The bottom line is that Kuwait can’t load or ship oil, cutting off flows worth roughly $150 million to $180 million a day at current prices and throwing delivery schedules into disarray.

While other Gulf producers are also dealing with export disruptions, Kuwait is especially vulnerable because almost all of its oil has to pass through Hormuz, with few alternative routes.

Kuwait has suffered repeated hits to its oil infrastructure, and output is now at levels last seen in the early 1990s after the Iraqi invasion. The latest notice to customers, which was delivered late last week, takes into account that full operations will take time to recover once hostilities ease, according to Bloomberg.

The UAE government’s AI chief posted a photo on Instagram today of a meeting he had with Elon Musk and said his country wants to continue working closely with the tech billionaire.

“I had a great exchange with Elon Musk discussing​ the next frontier of @SpaceX and space exploration to the transformative progress of Tesla with Optimus and @boringcompany’s urban innovation,” Omar Al Olama, UAE Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence, Digital Economy and Remote Work Applications, wrote in the post.

Al Olama’s message comes as SpaceX is in the middle of a massive fundraising push tied to its planned IPO that could raise about $75 billion at a valuation approaching $1.75 trillion. Musk has been courting investors and holding analyst briefings this week to build demand.

“I reaffirmed the UAE’s commitment to fostering global partnerships that turn the science fiction of today into the reality of tomorrow,” Al Olama wrote.

In the Instagram post, Al Olama doesn’t say where or when the meeting took place. Musk’s last public appearance with the cabinet minister was in December when the SpaceX founder and CEO met in Abu Dhabi with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed.

The UAE is making contingency plans for deeper financial disruptions from war with Iran and asking the U.S. for help.

UAE Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama has discussed the possibility of receiving various forms of financial backing in meetings with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve officials in Washington, The Wall Street Journal reports.

A key option under consideration is a dollar swap line – an arrangement that would allow the UAE to access large amounts of U.S. dollars from the Federal Reserve in exchange for its own currency, helping ensure banks and businesses can keep operating if dollar funding tightens.

The concern is that continued attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could sharply reduce oil revenues and limit the flow of dollars into the UAE, putting pressure on the dirham, which is pegged to the U.S. currency, and raising the risk of capital outflows.

While no formal request has been made, the talks highlight growing unease in Abu Dhabi that a prolonged conflict could disrupt trade and finance, push some transactions toward alternative currencies such as the Chinese yuan, and force the UAE to rely on U.S. backing to stabilize its economy.

Saudi Arabia says it’s stepping up efforts to combat illicit financial activity.

Saudi Central Bank Governor Ayman Al-Sayari said during a meeting of the Financial Action Task Force in Washington, D.C., last week that the kingdom is aligning its regulatory framework with international standards and has updated anti-money laundering laws to strengthen supervision, confiscation mechanisms and cross-border cooperation.

Al-Sayeri also called for stronger international coordination to fight terrorist financing and arms proliferation.

“We support adopting a risk-based approach in implementing international standards requirements and mutual evaluation processes, and we welcome financial innovations,” Al-Sayari said.