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security concerns

Mideast conflict stokes Gulf investment in defense, energy

The Daily Circuit: Gulf invests in defense + Lucid gets $750M

CLOUDY FORECAST

IMF cuts MENA growth outlook as war disrupts trade, energy

slow recovery

UAE tourism urged to ‘reinvent itself’ as war hits visitor numbers

pied-à-terre

Gulf expats shop for second homes, safe haven in Europe

The Daily Circuit: KBM meets Xi in Beijing + OPEC production slide

TROUBLED Brands

Slow Dubai mall sales threaten luxury shopping recovery

Alternate route

Saudi Arabia repairs East-West oil pipeline after war damage

The Daily Circuit: Saudi pipeline patched up + Etihad’s China expansion

SKIN IN THE GAME

China’s Iran support restrained by investments in Middle East

war toll

Saudi Aramco-TotalEnergies refinery damaged in Iran attack

The Daily Circuit: Aramco-TotalEnergies refinery hit earlier this week

bulking up

Mubadala’s assets under management grow 17% to $385B

perilous passage

ADNOC’s Al Jaber says Strait must open with ‘no strings attached’

The Daily Circuit: ADNOC’s Al Jaber says Strait must open + Mubadala asset growth

The Daily Circuit: Markets surge on fragile truce + Shippers eye Hormuz

Ticking clock

Gulf braces for violent night as Trump deadline on Iran looms

up stream

Abu Dhabi-backed Banijay aims to challenge streaming titans

The Daily Circuit: Gulf braces for Trump deadline + PIF war costs

hollywood billions

Paramount Skydance seeks $24B from Gulf funds to buy Warner

Quick Hits

calculated risks

Gulf governments review foreign investments amid Iran conflict

The region’s sovereign wealth funds could also scale back overseas investments or redirect capital toward national 'resilience projects'

FADEL SENNA / AFP via Getty Images

The UAE Ministry of Interior issued alerts on attacks from Iran

By
Jonathan H. Ferziger
March 6, 2026
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Gulf governments are reviewing overseas investments and financial commitments as the economic strain of the Iran conflict spreads across the region.

The reassessment could affect investment pledges to foreign companies, sports sponsorships, business contracts and potential asset sales, the Financial Times reports, citing an unnamed Gulf official and industry analysts.

One avenue being examined is whether they can invoke force majeure clauses to suspend contractual obligations. Current and future investments are also being reevaluated to ease anticipated financial strain if the war continues, the newspaper reports.

The conflict is already playing havoc with the Gulf economy: shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been virtually shut down after Iranian attacks on oil tankers, Qatar suspended production at its main LNG plant following a drone strike, and Iranian attacks on regional infrastructure are disrupting air travel and tourism.

The region’s sovereign wealth funds could also scale back overseas investments or redirect capital toward national “resilience projects” if a prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz interrupts energy flows, Global SWF reports.

Under that scenario, Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala would channel capital into industries supporting economic stability and supply chains, and L’imad Holding could steer funds toward logistics and security infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund would also likely slow the pace of domestic mega projects while selectively investing abroad in global technology and infrastructure, Global SWF said.

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REAL TEST

Dubai’s property market put to test in missile barrage from Iran

The sell-off comes as analysts had already warned that a pipeline of new housing supply expected by 2028 could outpace population growth

Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images

Dubai International Financial Centre

By
Omnia Al Desoukie
March 5, 2026
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The UAE’s years-long property rally faces its first major test after Iranian missile strikes unsettled investors, sending shares in developers such as Aldar Properties and Emaar Properties down almost 5%.

The sell-off comes as analysts had already warned that a pipeline of new housing supply expected by 2028 could outpace population growth, Reuters reports.

Meanwhile, bond prices of major developers also dropped sharply, effectively shutting the debt market.

With expatriates and overseas buyers underpinning much of the market’s demand, investors say the outlook will depend largely on whether foreign appetite for property in the UAE holds up.

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risky waters

Shipping giants freeze container traffic amid rising Gulf threats

More than 3,000 ships have been stuck in Gulf ports or waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz as international insurers withdraw war-risk coverage

Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images

Commercial ships anchor off the coast of the UAE

By
Jonathan H. Ferziger
March 5, 2026
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Container shipping giants Hapag-Lloyd and A.P. Moller-Maersk have halted bookings and begun diverting vessels away from the Middle East amid escalating security risks in the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global trade routes.

The moves by the two European carriers – among the world’s biggest container lines –  come as the threat of missile and drone attacks has forced shipping companies to reroute cargo or suspend transits through the narrow Gulf waterway, The Wall Street Journal reports.

More than 3,000 vessels have been stuck in Gulf ports or waiting outside the strait as insurers withdraw war-risk coverage and shipowners hesitate to send crews into what has effectively become a combat zone.

At the same time, oil shipping has begun to stall as dozens of supertankers either idle inside the Persian Gulf or slow their voyages while owners assess whether it is safe to attempt the passage, Bloomberg reports.

The disruption in the corridor that normally carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supplies has sent tanker charter rates soaring and raised fears of prolonged shocks to global supply chains. 

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alternate route

Egypt offers to transport Saudi crude oil to Mediterranean port

Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi said Egypt is prepared use its Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, known as Sumed, to carry the oil from Saudi Arabia

Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Karim Badawi, Egypt's Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister

By
Omnia Al Desoukie
March 4, 2026
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Egypt said it could facilitate the transit of Saudi oil through its territory to ease export bottlenecks, positioning the Suez Canal and its pipeline infrastructure as alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz.

Petroleum Minister Karim Badawi said Tuesday that Egypt is prepared to transport Saudi crude from the Red Sea port of Yanbu to the Mediterranean via the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, known as Sumed.

The proposal comes after Reuters reported that Saudi Aramco told some buyers of its Arab Light crude that cargoes must be loaded at Yanbu on the Red Sea coast – a move sources say is intended to bypass the Strait of Hormuz following recent attacks on shipping.

The line runs across Egypt from the Gulf of Suez to the Mediterranean and has a capacity of about 2.5 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

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rescue mission

Etihad Rail evacuates stranded UAE travelers across Saudi border

With tens of thousands of passengers marooned by the closure of Middle East airspaces, many are scrambling to find alternate routes home

WAM

One of the three Etihad trains that evacuated passengers

By
Jonathan H. Ferziger
March 4, 2026
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Etihad Rail’s passenger service, one of this year’s most anticipated infrastructure projects,soft-launched this week with little of the fanfare planned for its official debut, as it was thrown into action to help ferry travelers stranded by the conflict with Iran. 

With tens of thousands of passengers marooned by the closure of Middle East air spaces, many are scrambling to find alternate routes home.

Some wealthy travelers are paying private security and charter jet companies to whisk them overland to airports in Muscat and Riyadh. 

Etihad Rail, which will eventually carry travelers across the Emirates at up to 200 kilometers (125 miles) an hour, ran three trains ferrying more than 350 residents of the UAE back to Abu Dhabi from the Al Ghuwaifat border crossing with Saudi Arabia. It appears likely to continue running similar rescue operations until commercial flights resume.

“Operations will continue as required, in close co-ordination with the competent authorities, until air traffic resumes and flights return to their regular schedules,” Mohammed Al Shehhi, Chief Projects Officer at Etihad Rail, said. 

While Etihad Rail was scheduled to launch passenger services this year, with 11 stations announced so far, the official launch date has yet to be announced. It is expected to carry 36 million passengers by 2030, with a journey from Abu Dhabi to Dubai taking less than an hour. 

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financial fallout

Iran attacks roil Mideast markets, though oil impact stays moderate

Natural gas prices have spiked far more sharply than crude, reflecting the sensitivity of disruptions to LNG infrastructure in the Gulf

FADEL SENNA / AFP via Getty Images

View of the Gulf from the northern emirate of Ras Al Khaimah

By
Jonathan H. Ferziger
March 3, 2026
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U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, coupled with Iranian missile assaults on the Gulf, are playing havoc with world markets as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has practically ground to a halt. 

Oil prices, though, have risen only modestly compared with past crises, suggesting traders are betting on a short-lived conflict, Bloomberg reports.

The effective stoppage of about 20% of global seaborne oil flows has pushed the price of Brent crude to its highest since mid-2025, but the scale of gains remains limited partly because major producers still can redirect some supply and spare capacity cushions the market.

Natural gas prices have spiked far more sharply than crude, reflecting the fact that disruptions to LNG infrastructure in the Gulf have a more punishing impact than on oil, the news agency said.

​​QatarEnergy announced on Monday that it ceased LNG production after military attacks on its Ras Laffan complex, the world’s biggest natural gas export facility.

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Economic Partners

UAE and Ecuador seal trade accord with $3B in potential deals

Dr. Thani Al Zeyoudi, UAE Minister of Foreign Trade, signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in the capital city of Quito

WAM

Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, and President of Ecuador Daniel Noboa announcing the trade deal

By
Jonathan H. Ferziger
March 3, 2026
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Undeterred from pursuing its long-term investment objectives amid Iranian bombardment, the UAE signed a trade pact with Ecuador on Sunday, with more than $3 billion in potential deals on the table.

Dr. Thani Al Zeyoudi, UAE Minister of Foreign Trade, signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement at a ceremony in the capital city of Quito on Sunday.

It followed a visit to Ecuador by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohamed, who met with President of Ecuador Daniel Noboa on Sunday ahead of the pact signing.

Among the potential deals is a $250 million collaboration between the UAE’s EDGE Group and Ecuador’s Ministry of National Defense. Ecuador is the fourth Latin American country to sign a CEPA with the UAE, joining Costa Rica, Chile and Colombia.

Al Zeyoudi said the UAE is Ecuador’s largest trading partner across the Arab world and Africa, accounting for about 30% of total trade with the regions combined.

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STORMY SEAS

Shipping insurers threaten to cancel policies after Iran strikes

Maersk halted sailings through the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the point connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean

Sahar Al Attar/ AFP via Getty Images

A navy vessel is seen sailing in the Strait of Hormuz

By
Jonathan H. Ferziger
March 2, 2026
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Insurance companies are telling ship owners they may cancel policies and raise coverage prices as much as 50% for vessels traveling through the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reports.

Cargo war risk insurers – which cover commodities carried on tankers, such as grain and oil – said that they were preparing to cancel policies and renegotiate coverage at higher prices, rather than denying coverage for ships sailing into the region, the newspaper said.

Danish container shipping line Maersk, meanwhile, halted sailings through the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, citing escalating regional security risks.

The move is expected to lengthen shipping times and raise freight costs.

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